讲座主题：Extrapolative Beliefs and Financial Decisions: Causal Evidence from Renewable Energy Financing

主讲嘉宾：秦雨，新加坡国立大学

讲座时间：2023年06月06日（周二），10:00-12:00

讲座地点：中央财经大学学院南路校区实验楼616

嘉宾简介：

秦雨，新加坡国立大学商学院房地产系院长讲席长聘副教授，康奈尔大学应用经济学博士，主要研究领域为环境经济学、城市经济学。担任国际期刊China Economic Review共同主编； Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization副主编； Journal of Economic Geography编委会委员。研究发表在Journal of Labor Economics, Journal of Public Economics, Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Nature Climate Change, Nature Human Behaviour, Nature Water等杂志。

内容摘要：How do expectation biases causally affect households’ financial decisions? We exploit a unique setting and study the repayment decision in solar loans, in which households borrow to purchase and install solar photovoltaic (PV) systems. Electricity production – the benefit that solar panels generate – primarily depends on sunshine duration. This creates exogenous within-person across-period variation in recent signals that borrowers observe and thereby expectations of future electricity production. We find that a one-standard-deviation decrease in sunshine duration in the week right before the repayment date leads to a 20.8% increase of delinquency, even though deviated past sunshine duration does not predict that in the future. Survey evidence shows that agents make more positive forecasts of future electricity production after experiencing longer sunshine duration in the past week. We examine a battery of alternative explanations and rule out mechanisms based on liquidity constraints and wealth effects.