讲座主题：

A DOUBLE DOSE OF REFORM: INSURANCE AND CENTRALIZED NEGOTIATION IN DRUG MARKETS

主讲嘉宾：

贾攀乐（Panle Jia Barwick） 美国威斯康星大学麦迪逊分校

讲座信息：

2025年11月17日周一上午09:30-11:30

线上会议号：

腾讯会议：430-740-779

嘉宾简介：

贾攀乐（Panle Jia Barwick）是威斯康星大学麦迪逊分校经济学系的Todd E. and Elizabeth H. Warnock讲席教授。她的研究领域包括产业组织学、中国经济学、应用微观经济学和应用计量经济学，并对环境经济学具有浓厚兴趣。她的研究成果发表在经济学顶级期刊上，包括American Economic Review、Econometrica、Quarterly Journal of Economics和Review of Economic Studies等。她是威斯康星大学麦迪逊分校Pan Asia Pacific Sustainability Initiative（PAPSI）的联合创始人兼联合主任，同时也是Cornell Institute for China Economic Research（CICER）的联合创始人，并现任该研究所理事会成员。她还是National Bureau of Economic Research（NBER）的研究员和Center for Economic Policy Research（CEPR）的研究员。 此外，她担任American Economic Journal: Applied Economics、Journal of Economic Perspectives、Rand Journal of Economics和International Journal of Industrial Organization的副主编，同时也是Journal of Urban Economics和VoxChina的编委会成员。

内容摘要：

Making innovative drugs affordable and accessible is a pressing global challenge. Centralized negotiation is an increasingly popular policy solution, but it remains understudied despite wide variation in implementation. This paper studies China’s ongoing NRDL Reform, which combines centralized drug price negotiation with expanded insurance coverage. The reform reduced retail prices by 48% and out-of-pocket costs by 80%, and increased drug utilization by 350%. At the same time, the insurance design was regressive, and 25% of negotiations failed. Focusing on cancer drugs, we estimate a flexible demand and supply model that features heterogeneous households, bargaining with potential breakdowns, and a government objective function that depends on consumer surplus and insurance spending. We estimate that including innovative cancer drugs in the NRDL generated Y40 billion ($5.6 billion) in annual consumer surplus gains and increased survival by 900,000 life-years among Chinese cancer patients each year. Among the counterfactual policies we examined, centralized market-access negotiation with an optimal coinsurance schedule raises social surplus by 19% relative to the observed policy and achieves 90% of the social surplus of an efficient benchmark.