讲座主题：Tourism and Trade

主讲嘉宾：Hans Koster 阿姆斯特丹自由大学教授

讲座时间：2026年6月29日10:00

讲座地点：中央财经大学沙河校区11号楼308会议室

嘉宾简介：Hans R.A. Koster是荷兰阿姆斯特丹自由大学空间经济系城市经济学和房地产学教授，Tinbergen研究所和经济政策研究中心（CEPR）的研究员，Regional Science and Urban Economics副主编。Hans主要研究涉及城市、地区和环境的经济分析，相关成果发表在American Economic Journal: Economic Policy、Review of Economics and Statistics、Economic Journal、International Economic Review、Journal of Public Economics、Journal of Urban Economics等顶级经济学期刊。他的研究还受到了公众的关注，多次被国家报纸和《经济学人》引用。

内容摘要：This paper examines the impact of tourism on international trade using a 30-year panel of bilateral data. We exploit major international sports events as plausibly exogenous shocks to bilateral tourist flows between countries. Our empirical results show that increases in inbound tourism significantly raise subsequent exports to the visited country with an elasticity of about 0.3, while we do not find a robust causal effect on imports. Tourism generates transitory, rather than persistent, increases in exports and operates primarily through the extensive product margin. To rationalize these findings, we develop a parsimonious model in which tourists from exporting countries meet potential buyers and distributors abroad, enabling their home-country firms to sell products in foreign markets that were previously out of reach. Counterfactual simulations indicate that eliminating tourism would result in a non-trivial reduction in aggregate international trade.