讲座主题：Market Contraction and Innovation Divergence: The Impact of the US–China Trade War on Chinese Innovation

主讲嘉宾：马啸 北京大学汇丰商学院

讲座时间：2026年4月17日19:00

讲座地点：中央财经大学沙河校区11号楼308

嘉宾简介：马啸，北京大学汇丰商学院助理教授，加州大学圣地亚哥分校经济学博士，国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目B类（原优秀青年科学基金）获得者，中国国际贸易研究会（CTRG）成员。研究领域涵盖国际贸易、宏观经济学与国际发展经济学，重点关注国际贸易、外商直接投资、创新与人力资本之间的动态交互机制，并结合中国情景开展定量研究。其研究成果发表于 American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics、International Economic Review、Journal of International Economics、Journal of Political Economy: Macroeconomics、Review of Economics and Statistics 以及《经济研究》《经济学（季刊）》《世界经济》等国内外权威学术期刊。其研究曾获WTO青年经济学家最佳论文奖。曾主持国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目（C类）和深圳市自然科学基金面上项目，并参与国家社会科学基金重大项目及国家自然科学基金面上项目。

内容摘要：This paper examines how the trade war affected the intensity and direction of innovation in China. Using textual analysis of patent abstracts, we compare innovation directions between Chinese and US firms based on term similarity. We find that higher exposure to US import tariffs decreases similarity—especially with recent US patents—and lowers Chinese patent filings. A quantitative model in which firms allocate innovation effort across product features and choose export markets shows that by 2021, changes in innovation quantity and direction reduced Chinese exports to the US by 3.3%, with shifts in direction accounting for 14% of the decline.