讲座主题：A Lost Decade of Fiscal Misallocation

主讲嘉宾：宋铮 香港中文大学

讲座时间：2026年5月14日15:30

讲座地点：中央财经大学学院南路校区学术会堂603

嘉宾简介：宋铮，香港中文大学伟伦经济学教授及经济系主任，世界经济计量学会会士和亚洲金融经济研究局资深会士。主要研究领域为中国经济和宏观经济学，曾在经济学顶尖期刊 American Economic Review、Econometrica和Journal of Political Economy 上发表过论文，获孙冶方经济科学奖（2013）。他是 Econometrica、Journal of International Economics 和 Review of Finance 的副主编，清华大学与香港中文大学中国经济联合研究中心主任，浙江大学—香港中文大学数字经济联合研究中心主任，清华大学经管学院和浙江大学经济学院杰出访问教授，北京大学光华管理学院特聘教授。他的学术兼职还包括香港研资局商科学科小组委员、香港金管局外汇基金咨询委员会货币发行委员会委员和香港货币及金融研究院学术顾问等。

内容摘要：This paper examines how fiscal expansion influenced resource allocation during Japan's Lost Decade (1993-2002). We document two key empirical patterns: a deterioration in the allocation efficiency of government investment, and a substantial increase in government borrowing driven by interest rate declines. We develop a politico-economic theory of the fiscal curse of easy borrowing: relaxing government borrowing constraint induces allocation to become more politically driven than efficiency-oriented. This mechanism is incorporated into a quantitative model calibrated to the Japanese economy, and we conduct counterfactual exercises to assess its quantitative effects. If the government transfers the extra borrowing revenue to households, the allocation of government capital would have improved substantially, raising aggregate TFP by 0.4% and welfare by 1.5% during the Lost Decade.