讲座主题：Industrial Policy, Productivity Jumps, and Resource Allocation

主讲嘉宾：杨海生 中山大学岭南学院教授

讲座时间：2026年11月13日（周五）09:00

讲座地点：中央财经大学沙河校区学院楼11号楼308

嘉宾简介：杨海生，中山大学岭南学院教授、博士生导师，主要研究产业政策评估、因果推断、AI与深度学习、网络分析。在《经济研究》(9篇)、《管理世界》《经济学(季刊)》等重要期刊发表论文近80篇，知网和Google Scholar引用超5000次。其中5篇论文获奖，所获奖项包括广东省第九届哲学社会科学优秀成果论文类一等奖、广东金融学会第十届全省优秀金融科研成果二等奖，以及第十二届广东省优秀金融科研成果二等奖(2篇)。主持国家自然科学基金面上项目及多项省部级课题，相关政策报告获中央部委采用。

内容摘要：Industrial policy affects aggregate productivity through channels that are not fully captured by supported-firm treatment effects. This study examines China’s Made in China 2025 policy and decomposes its aggregate TFP effect into productivityjumps，within-industry capital reallocation, and indirect general-equilibrium spillovers to un- treated industries. Firm-level and industry-year estimates show that low-MRPK firms are more likely to realize subsequent productivity jumps, and targeted industries dis-playa modest jump-size premium conditional on a jump. The policy also reduces the within-industry variance of log MRPK in targeted industries by about 0.300.By contrast, untreated industries with stronger input-output exposure to MC2025 tar-get industries experience higher MRPK dispersion after 2015, so the indirect spillover component partially offsets the direct gains. Combining the three components yields a point estimate of an aggregate TFP gain of 0.062 log points, with contributions of 0.048 from productivity jumps, 0.044 from direct reallocation, and -0.030 from indirect equi- librium spillovers. The evidence shows that the aggregate productivity consequences of industrial policy depend jointly on firm-level upgrading, resource allocation, and equilibrium adjustment.