讲座主题：Winter is Coming:Early-life Experiences and Politicians’ Decisions
嘉宾简介：梁平汉，中山大学政治与公共事务管理学院教授，博士生导师，中山大学中国公共管理研究中心研究员。主要研究地方政府行为，博弈论，政治经济学，行为与实验经济学。论文发表在Games and Economic Behavior, Journal of Comparative Economics, 《经济研究》、《管理世界》、《经济学（季刊）》等国内外一流期刊。获霍英东基金会高等院校优秀青年教师奖，主持国家自科基金课题，国家社科专项重大子课题等。
内容摘要：The preferences ofpoliticians matter in policy-making. This paper focuses on the role of localpoliticians’ early-life experiences in their policy decisions while in office.We take China’s Great Famine (1959–61) as a natural experiment and examine itsimpact on the fiscal decisions of County Party Secretaries (CPS) whoexperienced this famine in their early childhood. We construct a data set thatmatches the biographical information of 2,831 CPS with fiscal data of 1,715counties during 1993–2007. The results indicate that if CPS experienced a moresevere famine that reduced the agricultural population by 10% during theirearly childhood, other things being equal, they will increase fiscalexpenditure on agriculture by 6.8% and increase expenditure on social securityby 10.6%. In addition, a 10% more severe famine in early childhood decreasesagricultural tax by 38.8%. As a result, the early-life experience of famineleads to more grain production and agricultural employment. Aback-of-the-envelope calculation suggests that these influences on agriculturein China are substantial. Furthermore, we also provide evidence that famineexperience takes effect through the formation of policy preference foragricultural development, rather than the formation of beliefs about futurefamine.